Having looked at the FIFA World Rankings and the MJ Rankings, part 3 of the projected qualifiers series looks at the World Football Elo Ratings.
Unlike the FIFA and MJ Rankings, the Elo Ratings aren’t based on a set time frame. Instead, when a match is played the ratings are adjusted the teams’ relative strengths. They are seen as a popular alternative to FIFA’s official rankings, so much so that Elo Ratings positions often appear alongside FIFA rankings positions on international teams’ individual Wikipedia pages.
EUROPE: The differences between the FIFA Rankings and the Elo Ratings don’t seem to matter in Europe, at first glance. The Elo Ratings have all nine top seeds winning their qualifying groups: Croatia (10), Italy (12), Germany (3), Netherlands (2), Norway (24), Portugal (9), Greece (33), England (6) and Spain (1). The Elo Ratings also have three of FIFA’s four playoff winners in the form of Sweden (13), France (14) and Russia (20) but there is one change with Turkey (22) getting the remaining spot. There’s some difference in the other group runners-up too with Ukraine (27) and Switzerland (29) making their first appearances during this series, where they’re joined by Denmark (31) and Serbia (31). Bosnia-Herzegovina (56) take the other runners-up spot.
One thing worth noting is that Greece are only the 18th highest ranked European team in the Elo Ratings but are still the highest ranked team in their group.
SOUTH AMERICA: Once again, Copa America champions Uruguay (5) lead the way, followed by Argentina (7) and Chile (8), but it’s Paraguay (21) who get the fourth spot, ahead of Peru.
CONCACAF: The Elo Ratings are in line with FIFA here as Mexico (11), the USA (35) and Jamaica (43) take the automatic qualification places. Costa Rica (48) edge out Panama (51) and Honduras (52) for the playoff place.
AFRICA: FIFA continue to be on their own in their unusually high regard for Burkina Faso as they miss out according to the Elo Ratings. In fact, they have the same five teams qualifying from Africa as the MJ Rankings: Ivory Coast (18), Ghana (25), Egypt (25), Nigeria (42) and South Africa (48). Losing out in the final round are Cameroon (52), Senegal (54), Tunisia (62), Burkina Faso (69) and Mali (78), who make it through ahead of Algeria (94). Morocco (61), Uganda (64) and Zambia (69) would all be ranked high enough to finish ahead of Algeria, had they been drawn in their group.
ASIA: The usual story here with Japan (15), South Korea (16), Australia (17) and Iran (34) qualifying automatically and China going into the playoffs. Syria (62) make an appearance in the final round, qualifying ahead of Uzbekistan (67).
PLAYOFFS: The intercontinental playoffs see Peru (22) beating China (47) and Costa Rica (48) seeing off New Zealand (65).
So despite the rather large differences in the way the Elo Ratings and FIFA’s rankings are compiled, Elo’s projected qualifiers list shows just three changes from that of the official governing body.
PROJECTED QUALIFIERS (based on the World Football Elo Ratings):
EUROPE: Croatia, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Greece, England, Spain, Sweden, France, Russia, Turkey
SOUTH AMERICA: Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Peru
CONCACAF: Mexico, USA, Jamaica, Costa Rica
AFRICA: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa
ASIA: Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran
Part 4 will look at the random world of the ESPN Soccer Power Index.
World Cup Tracker - The Road to the 2014 World Cup 