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Monthly Archives: August 2011

It’s always refreshing to see teams make their debut at a World Cup finals.

Sometimes they rise to the occasion and exceed expectations, like Denmark in 1986, Costa Rica in 1990 or Senegal in 2002.  Sometimes their debut appearance is one to forget, like Haiti in 1974, Greece in 1994 or Togo in 2006.

Other debutants bring a smile to the faces of those watching, like Nigeria in 1994 and Jamaica’s Reggae Boyz in 1998.

The last World Cup was notable in that there were no first time qualifiers.  Slovakia made their first finals appearance since Czechoslovakia split but as FIFA regard both they and the Czech Republic as direct successors, they weren’t officially regarded as debutants.

Compare this to the 2006 World Cup, when six teams qualified for the first time – four of them Africa, and you can see you never know when a crop of new teams will pop up in the finals.

With 75 of the 176 remaining teams having played in the finals before, that leaves 101 possible debutants.

Let’s see who might make their first appearance in Brazil.

We’ll start with South America, where there is only one possible debutant.  Venezuela are the only team in the South American qualifying section never to have played in the finals.  For decades, they were the whipping boys of South American football.  They didn’t win a qualifier until 1981 and then didn’t win again until 1993.  But La Vinotino (the Burgundy) have improved dramatically in recent years as shown by their recent semi-final appearance at the Copa America.

With Brazil out of the way, rivals like Colombia and Ecuador lacking in form and 4.5 places still up for grabs, Venezuela have never had a better chance of qualifying for the World Cup.

The break-up of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia in the early 1990s has made the possibility of a European team making its debut at a World Cup more likely.  Ukraine, Croatia and Slovenia have all made their World Cup debuts since then and the newer members of UEFA seem to offer the best chance of finding another debutant.

Montenegro have been the surprise package of Euro 2012 qualifying.  Their stout, defensive style has seen them remain unbeaten so far and helped push their ranking so high that they were in the second pot of seeds for the World Cup draw.  However, they will be up against it, drawn with England again, as well as Euro 2012 co-hosts Ukraine and Poland.

A more likely debutant may be Bosnia-Herzegovina.  They came close last time, losing to Portugal in the playoffs and nearly forced Spain to miss the 2006 World Cup.  They’ve got a decent draw with Greece and Slovakia in their group, as well as Lithuania and Latvia, who were surprise qualifiers for Euro 2004.

Another team slowly improving is Belarus.  They’re in the hunt for a Euro 2012 place, having lost only one of their seven qualifying games so far, but being drawn with Spain and France in the World Cup may mean a place in Brazil is beyond them.

African football’s unpredictability means the best chance of a debutant could be found here.  Angola and Togo reached the 2006 finals when no-one expected them to.  Can anyone follow in their footsteps?

One team worth looking out for could be Botswana.  They’ve just qualified for the African Cup of Nations for the first time and have a favourable draw in the World Cup, with South Africa likely to be their toughest opposition in the group stage.

Uganda will be looking to make up for an early exit last time by reaching their first World Cup.  They are very strong at home and are on the verge of qualifying for the Cup of Nations for the first time since 1978.

Some were surprised to see Burkina Faso among the top seeds in Africa.  Their footballing pedigree isn’t particularly strong and they’ve never really come close to World Cup qualification.  However, they have a 100% record in Cup of Nations qualifying so far and their seeding has seen them drawn with Gabon and Niger in their World Cup qualifying group.  They should get through it and with the five places being decided by a final knockout round, anything could happen after that.

Zambia have come close to qualification on a number of occasions.  Many believe they would’ve qualified for the 1994 World Cup in the USA had it not been for the tragic plane crash which killed 18 members of the national squad and the coaching staff.

They would be very popular debutants in Brazil but have a tough task on their hands after being drawn in the same group as Ghana.

In Asia, Bahrain fell at the final hurdle of qualifying in the last two World Cups, missing out in playoffs to Trinidad & Tobago and New Zealand.  Their form has dipped since then and may have their work cut out just to reach the final round.

In the same group are Qatar, who would love to appear in the finals before they are due to host in 2022.  Also in contention could be Uzbekistan.  They reached the semi-finals of the Asian Cup earlier this year and were denied a possible playoff against Trinidad & Tobago a few years ago when a refereeing error forced their first leg against Bahrain, which they’d won 1-0 to be replayed.  Bahrain went on to win the tie on away goals.

Jordan also did well at the Asian Cup, beating Saudi Arabia and drawing with Japan on their way to the quarter-finals, and can’t be ruled out.

CONCACAF has provided a number of debutants at recent tournaments and may well do so again.  Panama reached the semi-finals of the recent CONCACAF Gold Cup and are more than capable of reaching the final six.  Guatemala have also reached CONCACAF’s final round on several occasions but have never really come close to qualifying.

Oceania doesn’t seem likely to offer a debut qualifier with New Zealand set to dominate in Australia’s absence.  But the All Whites have slipped up before against Pacific island teams, most notably in qualifying for 2006, when a defeat to Vanuatu meant they only finished third in their qualifying group behind the Solomon Islands, who’d earned a surprise draw with Australia in their final game.  They also lost to Fiji during the last qualifying campaign, though they were already guaranteed to top their group.

Whoever qualifies, Brazil 2014 is likely to be a month-long carnival of football but the party might just have a bit more atmosphere if there are some new faces at the finals.

Syria have been disqualified from the 2014 World Cup after FIFA deemed them to have fielded an ineligible player in both legs of their tie against Tajikistan.

George Mourad, who was born in Lebanon, previously played for Sweden in 2005.  FIFA say permission for Mourad to switch from Sweden to Syria was not sought, making him ineligible for the World Cup tie.

Mourad scored in the first leg of the tie, which Syria won 2-1 and also played in the 4-0 victory in the second leg.

The President of the Syrian Football Federation, Faruoq Saria claims his federation hasn’t broken any FIFA rules and says his country’s disqualification is politically motivated.  They plan to appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).

Tajikistan have been awarded the tie by forfeit and will replace Syria in Group C of Asia’s 3rd round, where they will join Japan, Uzbekistan and North Korea.  Their first fixture is scheduled for September 2.

Meanwhile, CONCACAF is reporting the Bahamas have withdrawn from the competition due to the lack of a suitable venue at which to play their group games.

The national stadium is Nassau is unavailable due to ongoing construction work and the Bahamas reportedly don’t want to play home matches in another country for financial reasons.

The Bahamas were drawn in Group C in CONCACAF’s 2nd round, along with Panama, Dominica and Nicaragua.

The withdrawal was confirmed by FIFA on Monday.

For the final part of the projected qualifiers series, we look at the Ziaian World Football Rankings.

The Ziaian rankings are the second longest-running of all the versions of the world rankings we have looked at, with only FIFA’s official rankings having been around longer.

The Ziaian rankings are updated constantly so these projections are based on the standings when the qualifying draw was made.

EUROPE: Once again, Croatia (18), Italy (10), Germany (4), Netherlands (3), Portugal (9), Greece (29), England (13) and Spain (1) top their groups, but Group E has its third different winner with Switzerland (24) edging out Norway (26), who come through the playoffs.  Sweden (11) and France (12) are playoff winners again, along with Denmark (23), who get their first projected qualification of the series.  Losing out in the playoffs are Turkey (27), Ukraine (28), Russia (30) and Serbia (32) with Slovakia (51) again missing the playoffs.

SOUTH AMERICA: Onto South America, where we get a rather big surprise.  It’s not that Uruguay are 2nd in the Ziaian rankings (though some would see that as a surprise) but the fact the three teams joining them in the automatic places are Chile (8), Peru (14) and Paraguay (15), with Argentina (16) down in 5th and having to rely on the playoffs, just as they did for the 1994 World Cup.

CONCACAF: Mexico (5) and the USA (43) complete a unanimous set of projected qualifications and are joined here by Panama (47), with Honduras (48) going into the playoffs.  Costa Rica (50) and Jamaica (55) complete the final six.

AFRICA: What’s slightly surprising here is how low some of the top African teams are ranked.  Ivory Coast (25), Ghana (36), South Africa (52), Egypt (53) and Nigeria (59) are the top five, with Senegal (62), Cameroon (64), Burkina Faso (84), Tunisia (92), Mali (99) the other group winners.

ASIA: Yet again, it’s Japan (7), Australia (17), South Korea (20) and Iran (40) taking the automatic places, with China (44) in the playoff.  As with the Elo Ratings, Syria (60) and Iraq (66) both appear in the final round ahead of teams seeded higher.

PLAYOFFS: Despite the inconvenience of the playoffs, Argentina (16) make it through over China (44), with Honduras (48) beating New Zealand (88) for the other spot.

PROJECTED QUALIFIERS (based on the Ziaian World Football Rankings):

EUROPE: Croatia, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Portugal, Greece, England, Spain, Sweden, France, Denmark, Norway

SOUTH AMERICA: Uruguay, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, Argentina

CONCACAF: Mexico, USA, Panama, Honduras

AFRICA: Ivory Coast, Ghana, South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria

ASIA: Japan, Australia, South Korea, Iran

So with the five sets of rankings examined, this is how many different versions of the rankings projected each team to qualify, immediately following the draw:

5: Croatia, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Greece, England, Spain, Sweden, France, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Mexico, USA, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Egypt, Nigeria, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Iran

4: Norway

3: South Africa, Jamaica, Russia, Peru, Honduras

2: Slovenia, Panama, Costa Rica

1: Slovakia, China, Montenegro, Burkina Faso, Turkey, Switzerland, Denmark, Serbia, Cameroon, Colombia

42 teams have been projected to qualify by at least one of the ranking systems, but there are plenty of other teams capable of making it like 2010 qualifiers Algeria, New Zealand and North Korea, or the likes of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia or Senegal.  There are always surprises and that’s what makes football so impossible to predict but whether it’s based on a set of rankings or simply gut feeling, people will always try…

For the next part of the projected qualifiers series we look at ESPN’s amusingly named Soccer Power Index.

While the previous versions of the rankings we have looked at have used a clear formula to calculate the standings, it’s less clear what the Soccer Power Index (SPI) is based on.  The website says “SPI rating represents the percentage of points a team would accumulate if a round-robin tournament were to be held among all the teams in the world.” yet it’s not clear how such is a value is calculated.

An algorithim that generates a 20-digit result is mentioned, but beyond that, there is no further information on how the rankings are worked out.

Each team also has numerical attack and defence values but again, it’s unclear how these values were reached.

These projected qualifiers are based on the rankings on the day of the World Cup draw.

EUROPE: It’s the usual suspects again in Europe with Croatia (11), Italy (19), Germany (1), Netherlands (4), Portugal (5), England (7) and Spain (2) topping their groups.  Slovenia (26) edge out Norway in Group E, while Greece’s ranking of 47 shows the apparent weakness of Group G where they are still the highest ranked team.

Sweden (12) and France (15) continue their ever-present playoff status, where they’re joined by Serbia (16) and Russia (18).  Losing in the playoffs would be Ukraine (21), Turkey (22), Denmark (24) and Norway (31), with Slovakia (50) the team missing out altogether.

All versions have the world rankings have teams in positions that make you say: “Whaaaaaaaaaat?” and the SPI is no exception.  For example, Scotland are ranked as the 38th best team in the world, despite only winning two competitve games in the last two years (against Liechtenstein and Macedonia).  By contrast, the MJ Rankings have Scotland as the 38th best team in Europe.  That seems more realistic, though the friendly victory over Denmark is an encouraging sign.

SOUTH AMERICA: No surprises in the top 4 with Uruguay (6), Argentina (8), Chile (9) and Paraguay (25) qualifying automatically.  However, it’s Colombia (27) who take the playoff spot, rather than Copa America semi-finalists Venezuela or Peru, both of whom are ranked below Ecuador, who haven’t won a game since November last year.  Hosts Brazil are ranked 3rd, their highest ranking in the systems we have looked at.

CONCACAF: Mexico (10) and the USA (35) take the top 2 spots here but Costa Rica (36) qualify in 3rd place, with Honduras (37) going into the playoff.  Jamaica (53) and Canada (57) complete the final round line-up with no place for Gold Cup semi-finalists Panama (60).

AFRICA: No surprises with the top ranked teams with Ivory Coast (13), Egypt (20) and Ghana (28) all in the top five.  Cameroon (33) are projected to qualify for the first time in this series with Nigeria (40) taking the other spot.  Senegal (41), South Africa (43), Tunisia (51), Gabon (56) and Mali (65) are the other group winners with Burkina Faso missing out.

One thing worth mentioning is the fact Morocco were ranked at 33 last month, despite doing absolutely nothing of note for years.  This month they suddenly drop to 75 and so they aren’t one of the projected qualifiers.  Random.

ASIA: It’s the same four automatic qualifiers once again in Asia, though South Korea (14) lead the way ahead of Japan (17), Australia (23) and Iran (42).  Again, China (62) take the playoff spot with Saudi Arabia (69), Uzbekistan (78), Bahrain (82), Jordan (89) and the United Arab Emirates (107) completing the final 10.

PLAYOFFS: Colombia (27) get the nod over China (62) to reach their first finals since 1998, while Honduras (37) beat New Zealand (67) to take the final spot.

PROJECTED QUALIFIERS (based on the ESPN Soccer Power Index):

EUROPE: Croatia, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, England, Spain, Sweden, France, Serbia, Russia

SOUTH AMERICA: Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Colombia

CONCACAF: Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras

AFRICA: Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria

ASIA: South Korea, Japan, Australia, Iran

The final part of the series will look at the Ziaian World Football Rankings.

Having looked at the FIFA World Rankings and the MJ Rankings, part 3 of the projected qualifiers series looks at the World Football Elo Ratings.

Unlike the FIFA and MJ Rankings, the Elo Ratings aren’t based on a set time frame.  Instead, when a match is played the ratings are adjusted the teams’ relative strengths.  They are seen as a popular alternative to FIFA’s official rankings, so much so that Elo Ratings positions often appear alongside FIFA rankings positions on international teams’ individual Wikipedia pages.

EUROPE: The differences between the FIFA Rankings and the Elo Ratings don’t seem to matter in Europe, at first glance.  The Elo Ratings have all nine top seeds winning their qualifying groups: Croatia (10), Italy (12), Germany (3), Netherlands (2), Norway (24), Portugal (9), Greece (33), England (6) and Spain (1).  The Elo Ratings also have three of FIFA’s four playoff winners in the form of Sweden (13), France (14) and Russia (20) but there is one change with Turkey (22) getting the remaining spot.  There’s some difference in the other group runners-up too with Ukraine (27) and Switzerland (29) making their first appearances during this series, where they’re joined by Denmark (31) and Serbia (31).  Bosnia-Herzegovina (56) take the other runners-up spot.

One thing worth noting is that Greece are only the 18th highest ranked European team in the Elo Ratings but are still the highest ranked team in their group.

SOUTH AMERICA: Once again, Copa America champions Uruguay (5) lead the way, followed by Argentina (7) and Chile (8), but it’s Paraguay (21) who get the fourth spot, ahead of Peru.

CONCACAF: The Elo Ratings are in line with FIFA here as Mexico (11), the USA (35) and Jamaica (43) take the automatic qualification places.  Costa Rica (48) edge out Panama (51) and Honduras (52) for the playoff place.

AFRICA: FIFA continue to be on their own in their unusually high regard for Burkina Faso as they miss out according to the Elo Ratings.  In fact, they have the same five teams qualifying from Africa as the MJ Rankings: Ivory Coast (18), Ghana (25), Egypt (25), Nigeria (42) and South Africa (48).  Losing out in the final round are Cameroon (52), Senegal (54), Tunisia (62), Burkina Faso (69) and Mali (78), who make it through ahead of Algeria (94).  Morocco (61), Uganda (64) and Zambia (69) would all be ranked high enough to finish ahead of Algeria, had they been drawn in their group.

ASIA: The usual story here with Japan (15), South Korea (16), Australia (17) and Iran (34) qualifying automatically and China going into the playoffs.  Syria (62) make an appearance in the final round, qualifying ahead of Uzbekistan (67).

PLAYOFFS: The intercontinental playoffs see Peru (22) beating China (47) and Costa Rica (48) seeing off New Zealand (65).

So despite the rather large differences in the way the Elo Ratings and FIFA’s rankings are compiled, Elo’s projected qualifiers list shows just three changes from that of the official governing body.

PROJECTED QUALIFIERS (based on the World Football Elo Ratings):

EUROPE: Croatia, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Greece, England, Spain, Sweden, France, Russia, Turkey

SOUTH AMERICA: Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Peru

CONCACAF: Mexico, USA, Jamaica, Costa Rica

AFRICA: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa

ASIA: Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran

Part 4 will look at the random world of the ESPN Soccer Power Index.